The security situation in Iraq

The security situation in Iraq.

While civil life in Iraq has become safer in recent years, the overall security situation remains unstable as the central government lacks a full monopoly over the use of force within its borders.

Proliferation of Sub-State Armed actors

Lack of Central Monopolisation. State police and armed forces regularly compete with well-armed non-state and sub-state actors that supplant government authority in providing security and justice.

Iran-Backed Militias. Paramilitary groups, including factions within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and the Badr Corps, have significant control over key regions like Basra and parts of Baghdad. These groups sometimes work with state authorities but also act on their own, carrying out arbitrary detentions, intimidation, and property destruction driven by sectarian motives.

Tribal Armed Power. In areas where formal law enforcement is weak or intimidated, armed tribal networks enforce their own customary rules and settle blood feuds with heavy weaponry, leaving local police unable to intervene.

Persistent ISIS terrorist threat

Resilient Insurgency. Although ISIS lost its physical territory, active sleeper cells maintain an asymmetric insurgency across governorates including Anbar, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salah Al-Din.

Targeted Violence. ISIS elements regularly conduct ambushes, improvised explosive device (IED) attacks, and car bombings aimed at civilians and Iraqi security forces.

Contested disputed territories

Multi-Sided Rivalry. Disputed territories between the Iraqi Federal Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), especially Kirkuk, remain tense and heavily militarized. Control over Kirkuk is fiercely contested by Sunni Arabs, Shia PMF militias, Turkmen groups, and rival Kurdish parties (PUK and KDP), with strong influence from Ankara and Tehran.

Land Disputes and Protests. Clashes frequently erupt over the occupation of residential properties, political party headquarters, and agricultural land in Kirkuk, triggering ethnic protests and heavy security force deployments.